What I Think I Know After the First Month of the 2025 College Football Season: Quarterbacks, Contenders, and Coaching Chaos
My thoughts on the 2025 College Football season as we enter October.
The college football season is just over a month old, and many of us have had to adjust our expectations based on what we’ve seen. From letdowns and underachievers to surprise superstars and underdog contenders, there will undoubtedly be more changes throughout the rest of the season.
However, here are some things “I think I know” after the first month.
Everyone hyped up the wrong quarterbacks.
This isn’t a unique opinion but rather a clear realization most of us media members have come to. In the offseason, the quarterbacks getting the most praise and attention were guys like LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier, Texas’s Arch Manning, South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers, UCLA’s Nico Iamaleava, and Arizona State’s Sam Leavitt.
They all may still be early draft picks, but looking at the national passing leaders entering Week 6, none of those guys are in the top 30, and NFL Mock Drafts have changed dramatically. Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza is now the projected No.1 overall pick by many, and Oklahoma’s John Mateer and Oregon’s Dante Moore have catapulted themselves into top-15 projections.
Iamaleava has been outplayed by Joey Aguilar, who transferred from UCLA to replace him at Tennessee.
Baylor’s Sawyer Robertson leads the nation in passing yards with USC’s Jayden Maiava and Duke’s Darian Mensah right on his heels. All three rarely received any national hype throughout the offseason, yet are making names for themselves.
Others impressing so far include Katin Houser (ECU), Josh Hoover (TCU), Maverick McIvor (WKU), Steve Angeli (Syracuse), and Drew Menstemaker (North Texas).
Georgia Tech will play in the ACC Championship Game
It’s been a while since Georgia Tech has been relevant in college football. It has been sitting in the middle of the ACC, occasionally coming up with shocking upsets while flirting with bowl eligibility.
Last year’s win over Florida State in Ireland seemed to awaken something in the Yellow Jackets, and it’s carried into this season, as Georgia Tech enters October at 5-0 and in first place in the ACC.
Looking at the remaining schedule, it’s difficult to see losses, although anything can happen in a given week. Still, the No. 17 team has already passed its biggest test with a win over Clemson and will not face another Top 25 team in conference play.
That sets up well for Georgia Tech’s chances to reach the conference title game.
Regression was inevitable for a few teams.
Some playoff teams from last season, like SMU, Notre Dame, and Boise State, are off to slower starts than they had hoped.
SMU and Notre Dame both have two losses already. It’s probably not a huge deal for SMU, given conference play hasn’t started for the Mustangs, but Notre Dame has no conference affiliation, which makes each loss more detrimental for the Fighting Irish. Boise State only has one loss, but it was a significant thumping by a fellow G5 school in USF.
Of course, none of these are overly surprising. All three teams had significant losses in the offseason and were due to regress a bit. Boise State lost the top running back in the country in Ashton Jeanty, Notre Dame has a new and inexperienced quarterback, and SMU is sorting out changes on the offensive line and throughout its defense.
Miami is the ACC favorite; Clemson is in trouble
Miami’s inability to live up to the preseason hype in recent years had me skeptical of the Hurricanes, but they’re humming like a well-oiled machine early in the season. They’re 4-0 with two ranked wins (at the time), looking dominant each week as they’ve ascended to the No. 3 ranking nationally.
Having said that, there’s still a lot of season left, and the Hurricanes were among the ACC favorites at this time last year as well. However, they have a great chance to finish the regular season undefeated if they can escape a road test against No. 16 Florida State on Saturday.
Clemson is on the other side of the coin. After rallying to win the conference and crash the College Football Playoff last season, many thought the Tigers were one of the best teams in the country.
They began the year ranked fourth in the country but lost the season opener to LSU and are now 1-3 on the season and 0-2 in conference play. Clemson’s only win came in Week 2 against Troy, and it may end up being “this year’s Florida State.”
It’s been a bad year for coaches who absolutely needed to win
Four coaches have already been fired this season. Arkansas’s Sam Pittman was the most recent, following Oklahoma State’s Mike Gundy, UCLA’s Deshaun Foster, and Virginia Tech’s Brent Pry.
Foster was the first, and Pry was fired later that same day.
Personally, I thought Oklahoma State would’ve let Gundy finish out the season after leading the program for 21 years, but it seemed obvious the Cowboys were heading for a change as they look to be well on their way to back-to-back losing seasons after reaching the 2023 Big 12 title game.
But there are even more facing the pressure of borrowed time week in and week out.
Luke Fickell’s experiment in changing Wisconsin’s power running style of play into an air raid passing attack has been a colossal failure. He’s probably the next to receive a pink slip, but guys like Billy Napier (Florida) and Trent Dilfer (UAB) can’t be too far behind.
Indiana is for real again
Those hoping for a Hoosier Hangover in year two under Curt Cignetti are going to be severely disappointed. Indiana is not a storied college football program, but it appears it is entering one of its strongest eras.
I was skeptical of the Hoosier to start the season, but the recent 63-10 drubbing of then-No. 9 Illinois was far too impressive to ignore.
With Mendoza playing his way into a top NFL Draft pick and only a couple of challenging games on its schedule, Indiana is poised for another College Football Playoff berth.
There’s a good chance they finish no worse than 10-2, and coming away with road wins over No.2 Oregon (Oct. 11) and No. 7 Penn State (Nov. 8) will help their cause.
James Franklin won’t win big games
There’s no question that James Franklin has a talented team at Penn State that has a good chance to make the College Football Playoff and compete for a Big Ten Championship. However, the knock on Franklin has been his lack of signature wins during his tenure in Happy Valley.
On Saturday, he came close but fell short in an overtime game against Oregon. He’s now just 15-29 against ranked teams in his career, according to USA Today. He’ll have two more chances during the regular season — Nov. 1 against No. 1 Ohio State and Nov. 8 against No. 7 Indiana.
The SEC is anyone’s guess at this point
Yes, the SEC has a ton of ranked teams again, and I’m not ready to crown anyone the favorite yet. The conference has five teams in the top 10, but they all have concerns.
No. 4 Ole Miss was impressive in its upset of LSU over the weekend, but the Rebels still have to travel to No. 12 Georgia and No. 5 Oklahoma. No. 6 Texas A&M has a suspect defense and faltered down the stretch in a similar situation a year ago. No. 9 Texas has not seen the performances from Arch Manning that most expected, and many fans have voiced their displeasure with No. 10 Alabama head coach Kalen DeBoer during his brief tenure in Tuscaloosa.
You also can’t count out late runs from Georgia, LSU, and Tennessee. Plus, Vanderbilt will be a tough out. The Commodores are 5-0 and have a chance to make some noise against five top-15 opponents during the final seven weeks of the season.
Tennessee is just fine
The offseason rumors of Tennessee’s downfall following the departure of star quarterback Nico Iamaleava were indeed premature. Josh Heupel’s squad is 4-1, ranked No. 15 nationally, and only lost an overtime game to No. 12 Georgia after a missed attempt at the potential game-winning field goal.
Scoring has been no issue, and Joey Aguilar has outperformed Iamaleava so far this year — further suggesting that Tennessee’s offensive system is behind its success, not any particular quarterback.
Three top-25 battles remain on the Volunteers’ schedule, so they should still have a chance to compete in the SEC down the stretch.
Iowa State and Texas Tech have overtaken Arizona State in the Big 12
The Sun Devils entered the season as the favorite to repeat after reaching the College Football Playoff, but they are now barely a part of the top 25. Texas Tech and Iowa State are right on the cusp of the top 10 at No. 11 and No.14, respectively.
I’ve been bullish on this Iowa State team being good this season, and it has made pretty easy work through the first few weeks. The Cyclones manage the game really well and don’t turn the ball over.
Quarterback Rocco Becht has been able to spread the ball out to five or six extremely reliable targets, and running backs Carson Hansen and Abu Sama III form a dangerous one-two punch in the backfield. Plus, they have a top-20 scoring defense.
Texas Tech has been known for its potent offenses, no matter who the coach is. Behren Morton is the next in a long line of prolific Red Raider quarterbacks, leading an offense that ranks No. 1 in passing yards and No. 2 in scoring nationally.
That’s nothing new for the Texas Tech program, but the defense sets this year’s team apart. They have the No. 2 rushing defense in the nation, which can force opponents to become one-dimensional if it can continue to perform at that level. Imagine seeing an offense like this not having to worry about opposing offenses keeping up. It should be a breath of fresh air for Tech fans.
The Big 12 race is going to be crowded and come down to the wire again
There are four undefeated Big 12 teams entering this week: Texas Tech, Iowa State, BYU, and Houston. That automatically makes this likely a four-team race, but the picture gets even more competitive when you realize 10 of the 16 teams have one loss or fewer, and 12 have winning records.
Obviously, there’s a lot of season left, and some of those teams will fall out of the running as they beat up on each other. Yet, most of those in the running at this point have a reputation for being there in most seasons, and many were in the race just last year.
Arizona State still has a shot, and Utah, TCU, Cincinnati, and UCF are trying to prove they belong in the conversation, all at 3-1. Utah has the easiest schedule remaining in terms of the number of currently ranked teams left on the schedule.
Some third-year coaches are showing that patience pays off
In the era of NIL and the transfer portal, fans have come to expect immediate success and overnight turnarounds, but that’s not always the case in college football. Sure, a few coaches here and there immediately light the world on fire, but it usually takes time to get your own guys in the building and get things operating the way you want.
It’s a common cliche to tell people to “wait three years” before accurately assessing and/or criticizing a coach’s approach and progress. Yes, you’ll get some who don’t work out, but the patience is paying off for a few programs this fall.
Alex Golesh earned signature wins for USF in the first two weeks of the season, knocking off ranked Boise State and Florida teams. He has the Bulls in the playoff picture entering conference play.
Georgia Tech sits on top of the ACC entering October under third-year coach Brent Key. The Yellow Jackets survived an overtime upset bid from Wake Forest over the weekend and have a win over Clemson. The progress has been slow, but Georgia Tech seems to be peaking this year.
Then you have Eric Morris at North Texas. He took over a program that won six or seven games per year and struggled at first. The Mean Green won just 11 of Morris’s first 24 games. But this season, UNT is 5-0 for the first time since 1959 and has a decisive win over Washington State.
The G5 College Football Playoff representative will come from the American Conference.
Boise State and James Madison are always in this conversation for the Mountain West and Sun Belt. Plus, Western Kentucky, Fresno State, and Louisiana Tech appear to be making early bids based on their current records.
However, the American is deeper and has more teams off to great starts.
USF was a popular sleeper pick and confirmed its candidacy by destroying Boise State in the season opener. The Bulls also added a road win over Florida, and they’re only loss was to Miami.
Others fighting for the top spot in the AC include Memphis (5-0), Navy (4-0), Tulane (4-1), and North Texas (5-0). Three of those four have made bids in the past and are looking to get over the hump and into the national spotlight.