What I Think I Know After the First Month of the 2025 NFL Seasons: The Fading Elites and Emerging Contenders

My takes on the NFL landscape after the first five weeks of play in the 2025 season

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We’re just over a month into the 2025 NFL season. Plenty of action (sometimes unexpected) has begun to shape the narratives for the rest of the year, including the potential downfalls of some dynasties and the rise of some new contenders.

While there’s still a lot of season left, here is how I see things in the NFL through the first month.

This is the downfall of the Kansas City Chiefs.

Yes, we’ve been fooled by slow starts from this team before, but this really seems like this is it. Kansas City is 2-3 and has only beaten a pair of 1-4 teams. Plus, the rest of its division has gotten better and has a bright future.

Many expected the Chargers and Broncos to be a challenge in the AFC West this season, and that’s exactly what we have after five weeks. Denver and LA are tied for first in the division, although no one looks like they’ll run away from the pack.

To that end, Kansas City can still win the West, but it feels like it’s now a step below Buffalo and even Pittsburgh and whoever else you now consider elite in the AFC.

The Chiefs have regressed in many aspects as other teams have gotten stronger, so don’t be surprised if there’s another AFC representative in the Super Bowl.

The Ravens’ identity is now their weakness.

Unless there’s some kind of historic miracle run, that team won’t be the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens are off to a 1-4 start and just gave up 44 points to the Houston Texans.

But it’s not just the struggle that’s surprising. It’s how badly the Ravens have struggled and the ways in which it has happened. The Baltimore franchise has been known for its elite defenses above all else. That’s what drove it to two Super Bowl titles. Yet, it’s a major contributor to the poor start in 2025.

Baltimore has allowed at least 37 points in all four of its losses and the most points per game to opponents overall in the first five weeks. Plus, its defense ranks last or near last in all yardage statistics.

The offense isn’t operating at an optimum level in terms of yardage either, but it is keeping up with the elite units in points. The Ravens have the sixth-best scoring offense in the league, but it means nothing when you can’t stop anybody.

Concerns about the Detroit Lions’ coordinator changes were overblown.

All offseason, we heard that the Detroit Lions’ Super Bowl window was closing because replacing coordinators Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn was going to be so impossible that there was absolutely no way Dan Campbell could keep his team going.

Detroit’s Week 1 performance in Green Bay amplified that theory on a national stage, but the Lions quickly debunked it with a string of significant victories.

Detroit is now 4-1 entering a pivotal Sunday night game in Kansas City. During the last four games, only elite offenses have been able to make things close, and those final scores make the games look more competitive than they actually were.

The Lions followed up their flop in Green Bay with a 52-point outburst against the Bears and have scored at least 34 points in every game since, returning to the top spot among scoring offenses in the NFL at 34.8 points per game. While the passing attack isn’t as potent as we’re accustomed to, it is still hovering near the top-10, and they are a top-7 offense in total yards and rushing.

As for the defense, Detroit ranks second in the league in total sacks and third in turnover differential. By yardage, it has the eighth-best unit overall and ranks in the top 12 against both the run and the pass. But it is very average in terms of allowing points. Still, that’s far from the “struggling” team the national media tried to depict during the offseason.

Miami’s Mike McDaniel leads hot-seat candidates.

No coach has faced more heat this season than Mike McDaniel. The former 49ers’ offensive coordinator won 20 games and made two playoff appearances in his first two seasons at the helm, but an 8-9 season followed by a 1-4 start has critics swirling.

Miami has plenty of potential on its roster but has struggled to achieve its biggest goals, and now there are rumors that owner Stephen Ross is growing frustrated.

The Dolphins’ lone win this season came in a six-point game that they almost blew against the winless New York Jets at home, and they had their doors blown off in a 33-8 Week 1 loss to the Colts.

The regression has been clear, and the decision-making questionable, making McDaniel the first realistic candidate to be fired this season (during or after). Miami will likely need a big turnaround these next few weeks, but even with a weaker schedule, it’s hard to see many more wins in 2025.

Other coaches whose seats I think may be heating up (now or before season’s end) include Cleveland’s Kevin Stefanski, Tennessee’s Brian Callahan, Arizona’s Jonathan Gannon, Carolina’s Dave Canales, and Brian Daboll of the New York Giants.

The Colts have unlocked Daniel Jones.

Quarterback play has hindered the Indianapolis Colts for years, and veteran signal-caller Daniel Jones beat out Anthony Richardson for the starting job in a training camp battle between two former top-10 draft picks.

Because of the perceived weakness of the quarterback room in Indianapolis, many expected the Colts to be among the NFL’s worst teams and continue searching for a franchise quarterback when the season concludes.

Instead, Indianapolis (4-1) is tied for the lead in the AFC South with the Jacksonville Jaguars and has the No. 2 scoring offense in the NFL through five weeks. And Jones has been one of the biggest factors.

Only Matthew Stafford and Dak Prescott have thrown for more yards so far this season, and he leads the entire league in QBR. A year ago, we were wondering if he had played his last snaps as a starter, and now here he is proving why he was such a highly-touted prospect when he entered the league in 2019.

He’s on pace for his first 4,000-yard passing season, which would be a massive compliment to running back Jonathan Taylor (currently the NFL’s leading rusher) and the rest of the Indy offense. That has to sting for Giants fans, even with the high hopes they have for Jaxson Dart.

The 49ers might be back, but they still need to prove it.

A 6-11 record was not what the San Francisco 49ers expected last season, particularly coming off an NFC title and a Super Bowl appearance. Injuries hindered their performances, but they also left some wondering if their championship window was closed.

Today, San Francisco (4-1) sits atop the NFC West, tied for the best record in the NFC. And they’ve done it with a backup quarterback and without one of their best weapons.

All-Pro tight end George Kittle has just four catches this season as he continues battling injuries, and quarterback Brock Purdy has appeared in just two games. That’s left the onus on Christian McCaffery, Ricky Pearsall, Kendrick Bourne, and a resurgent Mac Jones.

The 4-1 start is impressive under those circumstances, but San Francisco needs its offense to be at full strength. It has a great defense, but with so many elite offensive units in the NFC, San Francisco needs all of its guys to keep up.

The 49ers also had a pretty favorable schedule so far, playing just two teams with winning records. The margin of victory has also been slim, leaving little to no room for error. The good news is that only three games remain against teams currently above .500, so San Francisco may have an easy path to the playoffs.

But the Niners will have to prove themselves again once they get there.

The Jaguars are this year’s surprise team.

Indy belongs in this conversation as well, but I think less was expected of Jacksonville. Liam Coen was seen as an incredibly underwhelming head coaching hire, but quickly changed minds with his demeanor and culture-building. Five weeks into the season, his team is in first place and has wins over Kansas City, San Francisco, and Houston.

The rest of the schedule is a bit of a gauntlet with future matchups against Seattle, the Rams, the Chargers, Indianapolis (twice), and Denver, but that still leaves at least five more extremely winnable games, which would give the Jaguars nine wins and a final record above .500.

Their numbers are a bit concerning as they indicate a very average team, and you can’t expect the defense to continue performing as well as it has, given some of the offenses remaining on the schedule.

What it does for their playoff chances remains to be seen, but no one expected Jacksonville to be in this position before the season. Just being in the conversation in October is a win for that franchise.

JJ McCarthy is a bust.

I’ve honestly thought this since he entered the league. For all the hype and attention he received as a recruit and college player, he seemed to be relied on to do very little or just enough to get by at best.

At Michigan, he had an elite running game, offensive line, and defense that allowed him to throw the ball only when necessary. That always seemed odd to me, considering so many college offenses with “elite” QBs want to show off their skillset and design offenses that make them the featured player and the focal point of their schemes.

The way I see it, that allowed them to mask some of his weaknesses as a passer and not really reveal his skill level. When I watch him play, I see some of the traits they talk about, but I also see bad throws and other things that hold back quarterbacks from their potential.

He’s only two games into his career after dealing with injuries, but that’s another thing to add to the list of things to be concerned about. What will his availability look like going forward? To become a better NFL quarterback, in-game experience is crucial. You don’t just stop turning over the ball and become a star overnight.

It was a risk for Minnesota to put so much faith in that type of prospect, especially when the Vikings have really been an elite quarterback away from being a legitimate threat in the NFC.